Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
